Monday, June 22, 2009

US-RUSSIA RELATION-THE KEY FACTORS

This article is presented in points rather than in paragraphs.This might give you some food for thought to ponder over the matter in broader perspective.
  • Obama govt has shown some signs of milder attitude towards Russia.This is evident from
  1. He has hinted that US might not build any missile defense sites in Europe(Earlier there were hints that US might put interceptor missiles into Poland) at all.
  2. He has not shown much interest in including Georgia and Ukraine in NATO
Possible reasons behind such change of attitude might be:
  1. In Ukraine, the ongoing feud between the President and the Prime Minister might be the main obstacle for its candidacy in NATO whereas in case of Georgia, it might be the antipathy of some of the NATO member towards its President Mikhail Sakaashvili.
  2. US might want to placate Russia to secure cooperation in reducing nuclear weapons and in containment of Iran
  3. At present another missile defense site may not attract positive reactions from the US taxpayers considering the ongoing recession especially when the other two in Alaska and California are almost non performing.
However considering Russia's own aging arsenal,there might be interest in Kremlin to strike a nuclear arms deal with US and many US officials believe that rather than being in a concessional mood, US should leave the ball in Russia's court.Moreover,considering the May 2009 nuclear test of North Korea, US policy makers are of the view that US should not slow down the process of building a missile defense site in East Europe.The nuclear threat from Iran should be considered as well.

In this context, what seems to be the most determining factor in US-Russia relation is how Russia reacts to US policy on Iran.Russia has recently signed a deal to supply S-300 surface to air missile which is supposed to prevent any air attack on the Iranian nuclear sites.Moreover, as chances of EU enlargement eastward seems very bleak,Russia may continue to enjoy a greater presence in the area with no further expansion of EU or NATO.How US and Russia deal this changing scenario, will determine future relation between them.

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